Python pymc3.find_MAP方法代码示例

# 需要导入模块: import pymc3 [as 别名]
# 或者: from pymc3 import find_MAP [as 别名]
def fit(self, X, Y, n_samples=10000, tune_steps=1000, n_jobs=4):
        with pm.Model() as self.model:
            # Priors
            std = pm.Uniform("std", 0, self.sps, testval=X.std())
            beta = pm.StudentT("beta", mu=0, lam=self.sps, nu=self.nu)
            alpha = pm.StudentT("alpha", mu=0, lam=self.sps, nu=self.nu, testval=Y.mean())
            # Deterministic model
            mean = pm.Deterministic("mean", alpha + beta * X)
            # Posterior distribution
            obs = pm.Normal("obs", mu=mean, sd=std, observed=Y)
            ## Run MCMC
            # Find search start value with maximum a posterior estimation
            start = pm.find_MAP()
            # sample posterior distribution for latent variables
            trace = pm.sample(n_samples, njobs=n_jobs, tune=tune_steps, start=start)
            # Recover posterior samples
            self.burned_trace = trace[int(n_samples / 2):] 

# 需要导入模块: import pymc3 [as 别名]
# 或者: from pymc3 import find_MAP [as 别名]
def _laplace(model):
    """Fit a model using a laplace approximation.

    Mainly for pedagogical use. ``mcmc`` and ``advi`` are better approximations.

    Parameters
    ----------
    model: PyMC3 model

    Returns
    -------
    Dictionary, the keys are the names of the variables and the values tuples of modes and standard
    deviations.
    """
    with model:
        varis = [v for v in model.unobserved_RVs if not pm.util.is_transformed_name(v.name)]
        maps = pm.find_MAP(start=model.test_point, vars=varis)
        hessian = pm.find_hessian(maps, vars=varis)
        if np.linalg.det(hessian) == 0:
            raise np.linalg.LinAlgError("Singular matrix. Use mcmc or advi method")
        stds = np.diag(np.linalg.inv(hessian) ** 0.5)
        maps = [v for (k, v) in maps.items() if not pm.util.is_transformed_name(k)]
        modes = [v.item() if v.size == 1 else v for v in maps]
        names = [v.name for v in varis]
        shapes = [np.atleast_1d(mode).shape for mode in modes]
        stds_reshaped = []
        idx0 = 0
        for shape in shapes:
            idx1 = idx0 + sum(shape)
            stds_reshaped.append(np.reshape(stds[idx0:idx1], shape))
            idx0 = idx1
    return dict(zip(names, zip(modes, stds_reshaped))) 

# 需要导入模块: import pymc3 [as 别名]
# 或者: from pymc3 import find_MAP [as 别名]
def fit_pymc3_model(self, sampler, draws, tune, vi_params, **kwargs):
    callbacks = vi_params.get("callbacks", [])
    for i, c in enumerate(callbacks):
        if isinstance(c, CheckParametersConvergence):
            params = c.__dict__
            params.pop("_diff")
            params.pop("prev")
            params.pop("ord")
            params["diff"] = "absolute"
            callbacks[i] = CheckParametersConvergence(**params)
    if sampler == "variational":
        with self.model:
            try:
                self.trace = pm.sample(chains=2, cores=8, tune=5, draws=5)
                vi_params["start"] = self.trace[-1]
                self.trace_vi = pm.fit(**vi_params)
                self.trace = self.trace_vi.sample(draws=draws)
            except Exception as e:
                if hasattr(e, "message"):
                    message = e.message
                else:
                    message = e
                self.logger.error(message)
                self.trace_vi = None
        if self.trace_vi is None and self.trace is None:
            with self.model:
                self.logger.info(
                    "Error in vi ADVI sampler using Metropolis sampler with draws {}".format(
                        draws
                    )
                )
                self.trace = pm.sample(
                    chains=1, cores=4, tune=20, draws=20, step=pm.NUTS()
                )
    elif sampler == "metropolis":
        with self.model:
            start = pm.find_MAP()
            self.trace = pm.sample(
                chains=2,
                cores=8,
                tune=tune,
                draws=draws,
                **kwargs,
                step=pm.Metropolis(),
                start=start,
            )
    else:
        with self.model:
            self.trace = pm.sample(
                chains=2, cores=8, tune=tune, draws=draws, **kwargs, step=pm.NUTS()
            ) 

# 需要导入模块: import pymc3 [as 别名]
# 或者: from pymc3 import find_MAP [as 别名]
def posterior_mcmc(self, data):
        """
        Find posterior distribution for the numerical method of solution
        """

        with pm.Model() as ab_model:
            # priors
            mua = pm.distributions.continuous.Beta('muA', alpha=self.alpha_prior, beta=self.beta_prior)
            mub = pm.distributions.continuous.Beta('muB', alpha=self.alpha_prior, beta=self.beta_prior)
            # likelihoods
            pm.Bernoulli('likelihoodA', mua, observed=data[0])
            pm.Bernoulli('likelihoodB', mub, observed=data[1])

            # find distribution of difference
            pm.Deterministic('lift', mub - mua)
            # find distribution of effect size
            sigma_a = pm.Deterministic('sigmaA', np.sqrt(mua * (1 - mua)))
            sigma_b = pm.Deterministic('sigmaB', np.sqrt(mub * (1 - mub)))
            pm.Deterministic('effect_size', (mub - mua) / (np.sqrt(0.5 * (sigma_a ** 2 + sigma_b ** 2))))

            start = pm.find_MAP()
            step = pm.Slice()
            trace = pm.sample(self.iterations, step=step, start=start)

        bins = np.linspace(0, 1, self.resolution)
        mua = np.histogram(trace['muA'][500:], bins=bins, normed=True)
        mub = np.histogram(trace['muB'][500:], bins=bins, normed=True)
        sigma_a = np.histogram(trace['sigmaA'][500:], bins=bins, normed=True)
        sigma_b = np.histogram(trace['sigmaB'][500:], bins=bins, normed=True)

        rvs = trace['lift'][500:]
        bins = np.linspace(np.min(rvs) - 0.2 * abs(np.min(rvs)), np.max(rvs) + 0.2 * abs(np.max(rvs)), self.resolution)
        lift = np.histogram(rvs, bins=bins, normed=True)

        rvs = trace['effect_size'][500:]
        bins = np.linspace(np.min(rvs) - 0.2 * abs(np.min(rvs)), np.max(rvs) + 0.2 * abs(np.max(rvs)), self.resolution)
        pes = np.histogram(rvs, bins=bins, normed=True)

        posterior = {'muA': mua, 'muB': mub, 'sigmaA': sigma_a, 'sigmaB': sigma_b,
                     'lift': lift, 'es': pes, 'prior': self.prior()}

        return posterior